According to the BDO High Street Tracker, total like-for-like (LFL) sales grew +4.7% in September. Store sales grew +1.8%, while non-store sales enjoyed double-digit growth, up +11.6%.
This month's result may have been influenced by several different, but linked, causes: weather, rising consumer confidence, and retailer discounting together with rebounding online shopping. This illustrates the range of continuing struggles facing high street traders.
In the first week of September, LFL sales fell by -1.79% from a base of +3.40% for the same week in 2023. In week two, sales grew +15.95% from a negative base of -4.21% for the same week last year. Strong year-on-year growth continued into week three, with LFL sales climbing by +14.45%, again from a negative base of -3.44% for the same week in 2023.
Photo: Dreamstime.
This month, the UK experienced mild weather overall, reflecting a typical September mixture of summer and autumnal conditions. The month saw a mix of sunshine and showers, with areas of northern England receiving heavier rainfall and localized flooding. Scotland and Northern Ireland were cooler, while southern England remained warmer and drier. This unpredictable weather may have influenced footfall, which was low through much of the month. Of all destinations, retail parks enjoyed the strongest growth in traffic in September, returning strong growth in the first three weeks, but dipping into negative territory in the final week of the month.
September's overall LFL result marks the sixth consecutive positive outcome and the strongest result since February 2023. While the magnitude of this month's result was particularly driven by strong non-store sales, bricks-and-mortar retailers delivered one of their strongest results so far this year.
Rebounding consumer confidence may also have played a part in this month's result. Recent consumer confidence results reported the best outcome since January 2022 and showed growth across all sub-indexes, indicating that consumers generally are more optimistic about their personal and the national economic outlook. However, set against a backdrop of high interest rates and consumer debt, lower-than-forecast economic growth, and warnings from the new government of an austere forthcoming budget, household budgets remain tight, and retailers will be under pressure as we enter the lead-up to the festive season.
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