The downward trend in consumer sentiment, which has now been ongoing for several months, has continued in October. This is shown by the current consumer barometer of the German Retail Association (HDE). Compared to the previous month, the index has fallen again, making it the fourth month in a row. In the last few months of the year, there will probably be no growth stimulus from private consumption.
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Since consumers' propensity to buy is increasing compared to the previous month, a minimal increase in consumption is to be expected in the coming weeks and months. At the same time, however, consumers are also planning to intensify their savings efforts. Their reluctance to consume is therefore still noticeable. Although private consumption is unlikely to decrease in the coming weeks up to the pre-Christmas period, a positive impulse for overall economic growth is not to be expected.
The weak overall economic outlook and significantly less optimistic economic forecasts at the start of the fourth quarter are also reflected in the outlook of consumers. They share the pessimism of economic experts and the economy. Compared to the previous month, consumers' economic expectations have declined. This makes them more pessimistic than a year ago. Consumers are also not very optimistic about the future development of their own income; expectations here are also falling.
An economic recovery is no longer expected this year. In fact, another year of GDP decline is more likely, as consumption will not increase noticeably in the coming months and will therefore no longer be a driver of overall economic growth.
More information:
HDE
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