With Donald Trump's reelection as US president, shipping industry professionals are closely monitoring the potential impact of his economic policies, particularly in the context of ongoing US-China trade tensions.
Analysts, such as Punit Oza, predict that Trump's administration will continue pressuring Asia, especially China, to ensure a more balanced trade relationship with the US. Oza suggests that increased exports from Asia could become more viable due to economies of scale, potentially boosting shipping demand. However, he also notes that policies favouring increased US fossil fuel production may prompt renegotiations of trade agreements, leading to more unpredictable and dynamic trade flows.
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The shipping sector may experience both volatility and opportunity. Oza sees a potential US-Asia trade deal boosting ton-miles and bilateral traffic, which could be positive for shipping. On the other hand, a decline in US-Europe trade relations could result in longer shipping routes, thus increasing delivery times.
Lars Jensen, an expert in container shipping, anticipates a short-term surge in US import demand as businesses rush to stock up on non-time-sensitive goods before new tariffs take effect. In the longer term, Jensen expects further shifts in supply chains, driven by intensified trade conflicts.
Experts also predict that Trump's tariff policies, reminiscent of his first term (2017-2021), could lead to a sharp increase in shipping rates. During his first presidency, tariffs caused a 70% rise in ocean container rates. Economists argue that Trump's trade strategy could exacerbate inflation, disrupt global supply chains, and provoke retaliatory measures, reshaping international trade dynamics in the process.
Source: www.container-news.com