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Asia’s shipbuilding boom signals a new era

Asia has long been the global hub of shipbuilding, a position shaped by its strategic location, abundant labour, and capital-intensive expertise. Though Europe pioneered the industry, Asia now leads, with China, South Korea, and Japan at the forefront. Despite shipbuilding's notorious cycles of boom and bust, the sector is currently experiencing an upturn, driven by environmental regulations and the need for modern replacements. This surge is expected to last, solidifying Asia's dominance in ship construction and its evolving technologies.


Photo: Dreamstime.

From the early 2000s until 2008, the industry enjoyed unprecedented growth, fuelled by China's economic expansion and the rapid increase in global trade. As China joined the WTO and integrated into global supply chains, demand for large vessels soared. Shipyards expanded operations, speculative orders surged, and ship prices more than doubled. However, the 2008 global financial crisis ended the super cycle. A sharp decline in trade volumes, coupled with overcapacity and falling freight rates, plunged shipbuilders into a prolonged downturn. China began consolidating its shipyards, while South Korea shuttered smaller operations, leaving only the most competitive players intact.

Since 2021, a combination of shifting global trade patterns and tightening environmental regulations has driven a new demand cycle. The International Maritime Organization introduced policies aimed at reducing shipping emissions, such as the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) and the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII). These measures require shipowners to adopt cleaner technologies or replace older vessels, creating opportunities for innovative shipbuilders. However, hesitancy persists due to uncertainty over future fuels, such as synthetic LNG or ammonia. Nonetheless, modernisation is inevitable, as ships reach the end of their operational lives, driving new orders.

Korea, despite losing market share to China, remains the most efficient shipbuilder, excelling in high-value, specialised vessels. The country dominates the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers. With substantial backlogs and soaring exports, shipbuilding remains central to South Korea's economy. The government's commitment to smart and clean technologies is further boosting competitiveness. Plans include investments in carbon-neutral engines, autonomous navigation systems, and carbon capture technologies, designed to ensure Korea remains ahead of China's expanding influence.

China, meanwhile, leads in volume. Its shipyards benefit from significantly lower labour costs, cheaper steel, and strong government support. This has allowed China to capture most of the global market for bulk carriers, a segment in particularly high demand as older fleets face replacement. In contrast to Korea's focus on quality, China's strategy prioritises scale and price competitiveness.

Beyond these two powerhouses, smaller Asian players like Vietnam, the Philippines, and India are beginning to establish themselves. These nations possess affordable labour and growing expertise, though the high capital requirements of shipbuilding remain a barrier. Vietnam's shipbuilding capacity has grown significantly, supported by international partnerships with Japan and South Korea. India, too, is investing heavily to develop a national shipping fleet and reduce reliance on foreign shipping lines, aiming to become a major player in the coming decade.

Asia's influence also extends to ship recycling. The region handles the vast majority of global ship disposal, with South Asia recycling nearly all retired vessels. Although the industry faces growing environmental regulations, such as the Hong Kong Convention set to take effect in 2025, South Asia is expected to remain dominant due to its established infrastructure and skilled workforce.

The current upcycle presents opportunities but also challenges, particularly as concerns grow over future overcapacity. Yet the shift toward cleaner and smarter ships signals long-term growth. Whether through technological advancement or strategic expansion, Asia's shipbuilders are poised to sustain their leadership, making shipbuilding a key driver of economic growth in the region.

More information:
ING
think.ing.com

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