The policies of the current US administration have sparked concerns and potential opportunities for the German wood industry. High tariffs targeting imports from neighbouring countries, the EU, and China, as well as measures such as the proposed External Revenue Service, are key areas of focus. This new body would monitor trade surpluses, a concern for the German wood sector, which exports 12 times more to the US than it imports.
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Punitive tariffs remain a major risk. Import tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods and 10% on European products could diminish the competitiveness of German exports to the US, a vital market for the wood industry. The US is currently Germany's fifth-largest export destination and the most significant outside Europe. Such tariffs might also force German manufacturers to consider relocating production to the US to maintain market access, potentially reducing investments and employment in German regions like Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg.
General economic risks include the termination of the Paris Climate Agreement and increased fossil fuel production in the US, granting American companies a competitive edge due to lower energy costs. Additionally, heightened competition from Chinese products, redirected to European markets due to US tariffs, poses a threat to domestic manufacturers.
Despite these challenges, some opportunities exist. A predicted increase in US economic activity could benefit German exporters, provided tariffs do not impede trade. Similarly, the high tariffs on Canadian lumber may lead US importers to seek alternative suppliers in Europe, boosting German sawmills amidst a construction downturn.
To mitigate risks, the German wood industry is encouraged to explore new markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East while monitoring policy developments that could reshape global trade dynamics. Adapting to these changes will be crucial for maintaining competitiveness and seizing emerging opportunities.
More information:
Main Association of the German Wood Industry (HDH)
[email protected]
www.holzindustrie.de