A few weeks ago, consumer sentiment began the new year 2025 with a significant setback. However, as the current consumer barometer of the German Retail Association (HDE) shows, this was not the beginning of a negative trend. Rather, consumer sentiment brightened again somewhat in February, with the index increasing slightly compared to the previous month. However, this development should not be interpreted as a recovery, but rather as the result of consumers' wait-and-see behaviour ahead of trend-setting events such as the upcoming federal election.
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Consumers' reluctance to spend continues to increase. Their propensity to buy is falling again and is now even lower than it was a year ago. At the same time, however, consumers are not planning to increase their savings efforts. With regard to private consumption, they are therefore still cautious and cautious. Noticeable growth is therefore not to be expected in the coming months.
Consumers are not more optimistic about the economic development in the coming weeks than before, but they do not expect any further deterioration either. Their economic expectations are stagnating. Their own income expectations are positive, rising slightly compared to the previous month. The income-relevant changes in taxes and social security contributions at the turn of the year are likely to have been factored in here. In addition, consumers do not see any major risks for their own jobs and therefore their own income.
Overall, consumers are not much more optimistic about the coming weeks than they were in the previous month. Although their mood has not deteriorated further, it has not recovered significantly either, despite the improvement. With continued consumer restraint, they seem to be waiting to see what impulses emerge in the coming weeks and months. Depending on the outcome of the federal election on February 23, the subsequent coalition negotiations and further developments in the USA with a new president, consumers will then be more optimistic or more pessimistic. A recovery in private consumption with significant overall economic growth impulses in the first quarter is not to be expected.
The HDE consumer barometer, which is published on the first Monday of each month, is based on a monthly survey of 1,600 people on their propensity to buy, their propensity to save, their financial situation and other consumption-related factors. The consumer barometer, which is produced by the Handelsblatt Research Institute (HRI) on behalf of the HDE, serves as an indicator for private consumption. It does not reflect current consumer behaviour, but rather the expected mood in the next three months.
More information:
Handelsverband Deutschland
www.einzelhandel.de