The mood in the German wood industry continued to deteriorate in January 2025, with the HDH economic indicator declining for the third time in a row. Companies were less satisfied with the current business situation than in the previous month and were more pessimistic about the coming six months.
The assessment of the current situation deteriorated slightly in January to -37.3 points (previous month: -34.5 points). The outlook for the next 6 months was also slightly more negative, with the current value at -38.5 points (previous month: -37.7 points). Overall, the HDH economic indicator fell slightly in the reporting month to -37.9 points (previous month: -36.1 points).
Photo: Dreamstime.
The business climate in the wood industry is also weaker than that of the manufacturing industry as a whole. The value calculated by the ifo for the manufacturing industry fell to -25.3 points in January (previous month: -24.9 points), but was still above the corresponding value for the wood industry (-37.9 points). The gap between the two indices widened further in the reporting month.
Given the different levels of impact on individual segments, the mood in the wood industry remains mixed. On average over the past three months, companies in prefabricated wood construction (+9.5 points) rate the current business situation as positive, while the sawmill industry (-53.7 points), the furniture industry (-44 points), the wood packaging industry (-41.5 points) and the wood-based materials industry (-13.2 points) assessed it much more negatively. Business expectations for the coming six months remain clearly negative in all segments of the wood industry.
From the HDH's point of view, the current negative mood is mainly due to the weak overall economic development and the continued decline in demand for construction as a result of high construction costs, poor financing conditions and inadequate funding for new construction. The number of building permits for single- and two-family homes fell by 20.7% in the first eleven months of 2024 and by 22.1% for multifamily homes. In view of the upcoming federal election in February, it remains to be seen whether the new federal government will provide noticeable impetus for housing construction in Germany.
The growth prospects for 2025 have been noticeably reduced in the latest forecasts. The economic research institutes expect minimal growth at best for the current year. The federal government also noticeably reduced its growth forecast for 2025 at the end of January from 1.1% to just 0.3%.
More information:
HDH
[email protected]
www.holzindustrie.de